Nigeria Faces Food Affordability Risks from Global Energy and Fertilizer Costs

The World Bank has issued a warning that rising global energy costs, higher fertilizer prices, and supply chain disruptions could increase food production and transportation expenses, potentially affecting food affordability in Nigeria.

According to the October 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, global energy prices are projected to rise by 32% in 2026, reversing three years of declines. This increase is attributed to Middle East oil supply disruptions and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Brent crude oil prices are expected to average $91 per barrel in 2026, up from $69 in 2025, before moderating to $79 per barrel in 2027. Higher energy costs could raise agricultural production and transportation expenses, particularly for fuel-dependent farming operations.

The report also forecasts a 14% increase in global fertilizer prices in 2026, following a prior surge in urea prices. This could pose additional challenges for Nigerian farmers, especially smallholders with limited access to affordable financing.

While the World Bank’s projections focus on global markets, the findings highlight potential external pressures on Nigeria’s agricultural sector. Disruptions to grain shipments through the Black Sea and El Niño weather conditions are also cited as threats to global food supplies.

Under an adverse scenario involving intensified geopolitical conflicts and major supply disruptions, global food prices could rise 12% above the baseline forecast. Brent crude prices could reach $105 per barrel in 2027, further increasing inflationary risks.