Burkina Faso's Gold Revenue Faces Fiscal Challenges

Burkina Faso's improving economic performance is creating a difficult policy equation: how to turn strong gold revenues into lasting fiscal stability while financing development priorities and protecting households from rising costs.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reached a staff-level agreement with Burkina Faso on policies supporting the sixth review of its Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. The agreement follows discussions held in Ouagadougou from October 26 to November 4, 2026.

Gold has become a powerful contributor to Burkina Faso's economic outlook, supported by elevated international prices, robust production, and reforms within the mining industry. According to the IMF, measures to formalize artisanal mining are also contributing to economic activity.

The IMF expects real GDP growth of 4.4% in 2026, accelerating to 4.8% in 2027. These projections indicate continued expansion despite adverse weather conditions and external price pressures, although the underlying drivers of growth remain exposed to developments beyond domestic economic policy.

Surging gold exports pushed the current account into a surplus approaching 10% of GDP in 2025. However, the IMF expects that surplus to narrow to 6.8% of GDP in 2026, suggesting that exceptionally favorable export performance should not be mistaken for a permanently stronger external position.

The 2026 supplementary budget incorporates strong revenue collections during the first half of the year alongside increased spending, particularly on public investment, while retaining the authorities' original deficit target of 2.7% of GDP.

The IMF nevertheless expects the deficit could exceed that objective. Its assessment indicates that the outcome should remain below the 4% of GDP agreed during the fifth ECF review in June 2026.

Preliminary discussions on the 2027 budget produced an understanding around a deficit of approximately 3.3% of GDP. This would align with the programme's earlier projections and the medium-term objective of converging toward the West African Economic and Monetary Union's fiscal deficit criterion of 3% of GDP.

Completion of the sixth ECF review would release SDR 48.16 million, bringing cumulative disbursements under the arrangement to SDR 228.76 million. The facility, initially approved in September 2023, was expanded in June 2026 to provide total access of SDR 288.96 million.

A separate review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility could authorize another SDR 16.42 million, taking cumulative RSF disbursements to SDR 32.84 million. Both decisions remain conditional on IMF Executive Board approval, tentatively scheduled for mid-January 2027.