Lula and Bolsonaro Remain Tied in Run-Off Poll

A new Datafolha poll indicates Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva maintains a two-percentage-point lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a simulated run-off for the October presidential election.

According to the poll, Lula would receive 47 percent of the vote, compared to 45 percent for Bolsonaro. This result is within the poll’s margin of error of 2 percentage points, making the outcome technically a tie.

In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 40 percent of the vote, followed by Bolson, Augusto Cury (5 percent), Ronaldo Caiado (4 percent), and Renan Santos (3 percent).

Senator Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula.

Lula is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term as Brazil’s president. If no candidate secures more than 50 percent of valid votes in the first round, the two frontrunners will advance to a run-off.

Datafolha surveyed 2,002 individuals between September 22 and 23. Earlier this week, two other polls showed similar results, with Bolsonaro receiving 42 percent and Lula 41 percent in one, and Lula receiving 46 percent and Bolsonaro 45 percent in another.