Alaska Election: Key Races Remain Uncertain

Alaska’s most competitive races are still too close to call, with final results pending. As of Wednesday, Democrat Mary Peltola led Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by a few hundred votes, but ranked choice tabulation is not expected until November 18. Analysts continue to speculate on potential outcomes, though the race remains volatile.

Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins has 49% of first-choice votes and could secure the majority without needing ranked choice tabulation. However, Republicans face a narrow path to victory, requiring nearly every Republican voter to rank other candidates over Kreiss-Tomkins.

Republican U.S. Rep. Nick Begich III has 49.5% of the vote compared to independent Bill Hill’s 40.3%. Begich’s victory is seen as a rare win for Republicans in a state that has leaned Democratic in recent years.

Tens of thousands of ballots remain uncounted, with no clear indication of how they will break. Analysts estimate between 50,000 and 75,000 votes are still outstanding. Some predict these votes will favor Democrats, while others suggest they could tip the Senate race in favor of Sullivan.

Ballot Measure 2, which seeks to repeal ranked choice voting, has 52% of the vote for 'No' as of Wednesday. Analysts expect the remaining ballots to lean left. Ballot Measure 3, which restricts voting to U.S. citizens, is expected to pass easily with around 70% support.

Alaska’s election results reflect a broader national trend, with Democrats gaining ground despite the state’s conservative leanings. The outcome could shift the balance of power in the state’s congressional delegation and influence Republican behavior in the Senate.