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NEW YORK Wednesday, November 4, 2026

Nation

When Will We Know Congress Control?

NBC News projects possible early calls for House and Senate, but close races could delay results.

New York Editorial News Desk November 3, 2026 2 min read

The Brief

  • Democrats favored in House and key Senate races, but close contests may delay control calls.
  • Senate control likely hinges on eight races, with some states taking days to finalize results.
  • Ranked choice voting in Alaska and Maine could push Senate outcome to weeks.

In 2024, Donald Trump’s wins in key states led to early election calls, but this year’s congressional races are more uncertain. Control of both chambers is at stake as Republicans seek to retain slim majorities and Democrats aim to shift power for the final two years of Trump’s term.

Democrats are heavily favored in House and Senate races, with public polling suggesting they could project control of both chambers on election night. However, if races are close, determining winners could take longer, depending on how states count votes and how tight the margins are.

Senate control will likely depend on eight races, including Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, Texas, Maine, Michigan, and New Hampshire. If Democrats win the states NBC News rates as 'Likely' Democratic, they still need to win five of these eight contests to secure a majority.

Some states, like Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, count votes quickly, with over 80% of ballots expected to be tallied by midnight. However, even if Democrats win all four, they still need five more Senate wins to take control. Other states, like New Hampshire and Michigan, have slower, more decentralized counting processes that could delay results until early Wednesday.

Maine and Alaska, which use ranked choice voting, face additional delays. In Alaska, mail ballots from remote areas can arrive up to 15 days after the election, and ranked choice tabulation occurs 15 days after Election Day. In Maine, ranked choice results were released 10 days after its primary in June, and the state does not provide official guidelines for when this process will occur this year.

For the House, Democrats need a net gain of three seats to flip control. Recent polls suggest they are heavily favored, but the size of the majority will determine how quickly results are projected. If the majority is small, it could take days or weeks to reach 218 seats, the threshold for control. Ranked choice voting in Maine and Alaska could further delay House outcomes if these districts are needed for a majority.

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