One Nation's Victoria Prospects Downplayed by Senior Leader

Barnaby Joyce, a senior leader of One Nation, has downplayed the party’s prospects in Victoria, suggesting the state is not the best indicator of One Nation’s national performance. Instead, Joyce has emphasized the significance of the upcoming NSW election as a more accurate measure of the party’s standing.

Joyce told this masthead that 'those who wish to disparage us want Victoria to be the litmus test of how One Nation is going.' He argued that NSW will be the real test, noting that Victorian Labor has performed poorly and that preference flows could benefit the Liberal Party.

This stance contrasts with Warren Pickering, the party’s Victorian leader, who has been more confident, stating that One Nation is 'here to win' and will secure a government regardless of parliamentary dynamics. Pickering has dismissed speculation about preferences and emphasized the party’s determination to succeed.

Antony Green, an election analyst, noted that the split in messaging reflects nervousness within One Nation’s federal ranks about a potential poor showing in Victoria. Green predicted the party would win at most half a dozen lower house seats, highlighting the challenges of converting primary votes into actual seat wins.

Pickering’s recent remarks have also drawn scrutiny, including his failure to cite the cash rate in an interview and his support for a candidate linked to conspiracy theories. He defended the party’s stance on a controversial claim about former premiers, saying the candidate was taken out of context.

Despite potential struggles in the lower house, One Nation is still expected to gain a number of upper house seats, which could provide leverage to push a Coalition government to the right. The party’s focus on regional areas, where it has historical support, remains a key factor in its strategy.