North Korea's Growth Seen as Temporary Due to Russia

A South Korean think tank affiliated with the National Intelligence Service released an analysis suggesting North Korea's recent economic growth is not genuine but rather a result of war-related profits.

The report, titled 'Is North Korea’s economy really booming?', states that the country's 3 percent growth rate is driven by heavy industry and construction, which provide little benefit to the general population.

According to the Institute for National Security Strategy, North Korea's real GDP growth is estimated to have reached 3.5 percent in 2025, following 3.1 percent in 2023 and 3.7 percent in 2024, marking three consecutive years of growth in the 3 percent range.

However, the analysis argues that this growth is heavily dependent on arms exports to Russia and is unlikely to be sustained if the war ends or Russia reduces its orders.

The report estimated that North Korea's arms exports to Russia since August 2023 and troop deployments since October 2024 have accumulated to about $11 billion as of late last year.

If current export and deployment levels continue, the cumulative value is projected to reach around $16 billion by the end of this year.

The analysis also highlighted that prices in North Korea's private markets have surged dramatically, with the North Korean won losing significant value against major foreign currencies.