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NEW YORK Tuesday, November 3, 2026

New York

Mets Surpass Dodgers in Skubal Free-Agent Market

New York Mets now lead in likelihood to sign Tarik Skubal, according to Kalshi data.

New York Editorial News Desk November 3, 2026 1 min read

The Brief

  • Mets now have 40% chance to sign Skubal, surpassing Dodgers at 27%.
  • Skubal's decision expected before Dec. 1 MLB lockout.
  • Kalshi settles on March 25, 2027, based on Skubal's team.

With the 2026 MLB season concluded, attention turns to the free-agent market. Tarik Skubal, the league's top free agent, has seen his next-team market reopen on Kalshi.

The New York Mets currently lead the market with a 40% chance of signing Skubal, overtaking the Los Angeles Dodgers, who now have a 27% chance.

In the past week, the Dodgers were favored at 44.5%, while the Mets had 25%. The Dodgers' chances dropped to 27%, while the Mets remained steady.

On Halloween, the Mets made a significant move, increasing their likelihood to sign Skubal. The Mets' interest has grown stronger since then.

Kalshi will determine Skubal's new team by March 25, 2027. A $10 trade with the Mets would yield a $13.78 profit.

ESPN's Jeff Passan notes that Skubal is expected to make his free-agent decision before the Dec. 1 lockout. The Dodgers and Mets are listed as the two most obvious suitors.

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