Democrats Face Major Foreign Policy Divisions Ahead of 2028

The midterm elections mark the beginning of the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential campaign. After two years of debate over the lessons of Kamala Harris’s defeat in the 2024 election, it promises to be one of the most open contests about the future of Democratic policies, including foreign policy, in generations. It also promises to be one of the most consequential. The strategic environment in 2029 is on track to be the most difficult and unforgiving since the height of the Cold War.

Democrats are divided between centrists, who emphasize strategic competition and restoring U.S. national power, and progressives, who advocate for a rules-based international order and global cooperation. These divisions are becoming more significant as the second Trump administration continues to reshape the post-World War II global order.

The party’s major foreign policy disagreements—on the international order, Israel, AI, China, and the global economy—must be addressed by candidates, former officials, and thinkers before the 2028 election. Failure to do so could lead to indecision and infighting in the first year of a Democratic administration.

Former President Joe Biden’s administration shifted U.S. foreign policy away from free trade toward industrial policy and technological leadership, while also increasing assertiveness against China and Russia. Centrists now debate whether a future Democratic administration can restore or reform the U.S.-led international order or must adapt to a new geopolitical reality.

Progressives argue that the U.S. foreign policy establishment has failed by prioritizing U.S. primacy at all costs. They see the current international order as flawed and advocate for a rules-based system that applies principles consistently, even if it constrains U.S. power. They also criticize corporate influence in defense, technology, and finance as a threat to democracy.

The party is also divided over its relationship with Israel. Centrists criticize Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for actions that harm U.S. interests and advocate for more sustained pressure on Israel. Progressives largely support these changes but remain skeptical of whether centrist policies will be implemented effectively.

AI safety is emerging as a key issue in the 2028 campaign. Centrists see AI as a critical technology race against China, while progressives argue for a moratorium on development and a binding agreement with Beijing to manage risks. These debates could shape new coalitions within the party.

Long-standing debates over China and trade policy remain unresolved. Centrists view China as the most significant strategic and economic challenge, while progressives see shared interests in areas like climate change and AI safety. These differences influence how the party approaches economic statecraft and international alliances.

The Democratic Party’s internal debates over foreign policy reflect a broader question: whether the U.S. should manage geopolitical rivalries or overcome them through cooperation. Resolving these differences will be critical for the party’s ability to present a unified vision for the 2029 administration.