Democrats control Congress, shift foreign policy focus

Democrats have secured control of both the House and Senate, giving them greater authority to scrutinize the Trump administration's foreign policy decisions. The Associated Press forecasts Democratic wins in several key states, including Iowa, Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas.

Experts suggest that while Congress will have more oversight power, Trump retains significant authority over foreign policy matters. Laurel Rapp of Chatham House noted that the president still has 'a lot of latitude' in areas like the Iran conflict, despite increased congressional scrutiny.

The Iran war, which began with U.S.-Israel strikes on February 28, is expected to remain a focal point. Democrats may use their control of Congress to limit funding for military operations and related costs, though overriding a presidential veto would require bipartisan support.

J.C. Lintzenich of the German Marshall Fund emphasized that Trump's authority remains intact, as the president is not a 'lame duck.' He pointed out that pending actions in Iran and the unresolved Ukraine situation will continue to shape foreign policy decisions, even with a new Congress.

Berenberg's Holger Schmieding warned of potential 'foreign policy noise' in the final two years of Trump's presidency, citing the president's tendency to pursue high-risk geopolitical actions. He also noted that Congress is unlikely to fund a large-scale campaign similar to the Iran war.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is viewed as a 'tail risk,' with Trump's influence over Republicans waning after the midterm losses. Most Republicans, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, do not share Trump's support for Putin, which may help contain any aggressive moves toward Ukraine.