Close races could shape next government

In the Mt Roskill electorate, Labour’s Michael Wood holds a narrow lead over National’s Carlos Cheung by 266 votes with 99% of the count completed. The race see-sawed all night, with one singular vote separating the two at multiple times in the race.

If Cheung secures victory, it would significantly bolster National’s prospects of forming a government with Act and NZ First, contributing to an overhang of seats. For Wood, a former Cabinet minister suspended in 2023 for financial disclosure failures, the result is crucial for both Labour’s slim chances of forming a government and his own political career.

In Wellington Bays, the Greens’ Julie Anne Genter leads Craig Renney by 140 votes with 100% counted. Despite expectations of a closer race, the outcome remains uncertain, with Renney needing a win to secure a parliamentary position.

The Wairarapa seat, previously held by National’s Mike Butterick, sees him leading Kieran McAnulty by 139 votes. The popular former minister Ron Mark of NZ First likely splitting some of the votes on the right, making the race too close to call despite the final count being complete.

In Hamilton East, National’s Ryan Hamilton leads Labour’s Georgie Dansey by 456 votes, but the closeness of the race has raised the possibility of a recount or a shift in special votes. Hamilton described the result as a positive sign but cautioned against premature celebration.

Te Tai Tokerau remains a closely contested Māori seat, with Te Pāti Māori’s Aperahama Edwards leading Hūhana Lyndon of the Greens by 497 votes. The race has been complicated by the absence of incumbent Mariameno Kapa-Kingi, who left Te Pāti Māori to run under her own party, opening the door for Lyndon’s potential impact on Labour’s government prospects.