Citi Forecasts Greece's GDP Growth Through 2027

Citi forecasts Greece's GDP will grow by 1.8% in both 2026 and 2027, before slowing to 1.5% in 2028. The institution highlights investment as a key driver of growth, with fixed capital investment expected to rise by 8.3% in 2026.

Private consumption is projected to grow by 1.3% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027 and 2028, indicating that economic growth is primarily fueled by investment rather than consumer spending. Exports are forecast to increase by 2.5% in 2026, while imports are expected to rise by 3.7%.

Citi warns that inflation is a significant challenge, with harmonised inflation forecast to reach 4.1% in 2026. This is attributed to rising energy prices, with Brent crude oil prices reaching close to $115 per barrel. The institution also notes that inflation in the Eurozone is expected to remain above 3% in 2026 and 2027.

Public debt is projected to decline, with the debt-to-GDP ratio falling from 138% in 2026 to 133.9% in 2028. Citi highlights that Greece's debt structure provides protection against market volatility, placing it in a better position than other European economies.

The current account deficit remains a major challenge, with Citi forecasting it to widen to 6.9% of GDP in 2026. The deficit is expected to narrow to 6.2% in 2027 and 5.6% in 2028, though these levels still indicate substantial external financing needs.

Citi acknowledges the potential political risk from the 2027 elections but expects continuity in economic policy. Unemployment is forecast to decline from 8.6% in 2026 to 7.5% in 2028, suggesting a gradual improvement in the labor market.